Coffee Market Report April 02 2020

The Brazil government have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of March were 164,000 bags or 5.12% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 3,041,400 bags. The decrease in reported exports for this month due to the larger biennial bearing production in 2018 coffee year, to similarly reflect the increased exports of Conilon robustas, to consumer markets over the same month in the previous year. 

The National Coffee Institute of Honduras have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of March were 7.06% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 749,916 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the first six months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 1.04% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 2,786,870 bags 

The May to May contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 62.90 usc/Lb.  This equates to 54.22% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.    

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 32,005 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,947,735 bags, with 90.4% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,760,453 bags and the remaining 9.6% being held in the USA at a total of 187,282 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number increase by 4,496 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 44,653 bags. 

The commodity markets were negative in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a soft track for the day. The Cocoa, Coffee and Sugar markets ended the day on a negative note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 2.7481% lower; to see this index registered at 329.7339.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and showing some degree of buoyancy, trading at 1.242 to Sterling, at 1.096 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.249 Brazilian Real.   

The London and New York market started the day yesterday trading close to par on a modest negative note, both markets attracted a small degree of buying support to move onto a positive track for the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York market fell back from the highs of the morning to trade on a negative note. Late in the days trade support was short lived and the New York market settled on a negative note for the day with the London market following suit in a more sedate manner. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 78.95% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 65.14% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This soft and lacklustre close does little to provide anything in the way of direction and one might think the markets are due little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                 

MAY   1171 – 15                                                                       MAY  116.00 – 3.55

JUL    1204 – 18                                                                       JUL    117.35 – 3.00 

SEP    1225 – 20                                                                       SEP   118.30 – 2.75  

NOV   1244 – 19                                                                       DEC   119.35 – 2.90 

JAN    1260 – 19                                                                       MAR  120.45 – 2.95 

MAR   1274 – 20                                                                      MAY  121.35 – 2.95 

MAY   1292 – 21                                                                    JUL    122.15 – 2.90

JUL    1312 – 23                                                                       SEP    123.00 – 2.90