Coffee Market Report April 20 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position within the market by 12.85% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 14th. April: to register a new net long position of 9,819 Lots which is the equivalent of 2,783,643 bags.  This net long position has most likely been increased following the period of mixed trade but overall softer trade that since followed.  

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 8.1% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 14th. April; to register a short-sold position of 32,911 Lots.  This net short sold position is the equivalent of 5,485,167 bags and has most likely been increased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.  

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday; to register this at 63.67 usc/Lb.  This equates to 54.16% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.    

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 12,954 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 1,878,805 bags, with 90.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,700,898 bags and the remaining 9.5% being held in the USA at a total of 177,907 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number decrease by 21,959 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 39,621 bags.  

The commodity markets were sideways in trade on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a firm sideways track for the day. The Cocoa and Sugar Markets ended the day on a positive note, while the coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.2908% higher; to see this index registered at 337.5136.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.245 to Sterling, at 1.084 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.237 Brazilian Real.     

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading close to par on a modest negative note, both markets continued on this sideways track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets attracted buying support to move onto a positive track for the afternoon trade, this support was short lived with both the London and the New York markets slipping back into negative territory got the close. 

The London market ended the day on a negative and with 94.4% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 87.75% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close does little to inspire confidence and one might expect little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                              

JUL    1188 – 17                                                                  JUL    117.55 – 2.15

SEP    1206 – 15                                                                   SEP   118.70 – 2.00 

NOV   1224 – 13                                                                   DEC   120.15 – 1.75

JAN    1241 – 14                                                                    MAR  121.55 – 1.70 

MAR   1258 – 11                                                                    MAY  122.25 – 1.70  

MAY   1275 – 9                                                   JUL   123.00 – 1.70

JUL     1292 – 9                                                                      SEP    123.75 – 1.75

SEP    1313 – 9                                                   DEC  125.20 – 1.70