Coffee Market Report April 29 2020

With the month of April coming to a close and with the shipment statistics already at hand, the Vietnam General Statistics office have estimated that the coffee exports for the month of April shall be approximately 2,833,333 bags.  This they say, shall result in the countries coffee exports for the first four months of this year to be 4.5% higher than the same period last year, at a total of 10,983,333 bags.  

The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time estimated that the value of the country’s coffee exports for the first four months of this year, shall be 2.2% higher than the same period last year, at a total of 1.11 billion U.S. dollars.   Although the Vietnamese Government enforced a countrywide lockdown in early April, for the most part within the coffee and other agricultural sectors within the country and barring a small degree of disruption to the flow of goods from the interior, generally business has taken place as usual throughout the month. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 54.08 usc/Lb.  This equates to 50.26% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,250 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,849,597 bags, with 90.6% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,676,553 bags and the remaining 9.4% being held in the USA at a total of 173,044 bags.  There was a smaller in number 500 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 2,500 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 31,500 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 21st. April, to see these stocks registered at 2,276,667 bags, on the day.

The commodity markets were firmer in trade yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a positive sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.6014% higher; to see this index registered at 327.1404.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.248 to Sterling, at 1.085 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.497 Brazilian Real.     

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par on a modest positive note, both markets continued on this track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets started to attract buying support to move deeper into positive territory, both markets continued on the buoyant track for much of the afternoon to see the London market close on a very positive note and the new York market also close on a positive note. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note and with 76.92% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note and with 50.91% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close might inspire some degree of confidence to possibly set the markets for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                 

JUL    1180 + 30                                                                   JUL    107.60 + 1.40

SEP    1201 + 29                                                                    SEP   108.60 + 1.30

NOV   1221 + 30                                                                    DEC   110.25 + 1.20

JAN    1238 + 30                                                                    MAR  112.00 + 1.20 

MAR   1256 + 30                                                                    MAY  113.05 + 1.30 

MAY   1274 + 30                                                  JUL   114.15 + 1.35

JUL     1291 + 30                                                                    SEP    115.20 + 1.30

SEP    1311 + 29                                                  DEC  116.75 + 1.25