Coffee Market Report April 30 2020

Tomorrow is the Labour Day public holiday in 106 countries and including most of the major European consumer countries and along with, most of the main of the coffee producer countries.   This, to include Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, the Central American countries, Indonesia, India, the African coffee producers and while this does not include the U.S.A. and Great Britain and the coffee terminal markets shall remain active, it is unlikely that there shall be much excitement for the day within these markets.  

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 51.50 usc/Lb.  This equates to 48.91% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,608 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,846,989 bags, with 90.7% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,674,803 bags and the remaining 9.3% being held in the USA at a total of 172,186 bags.  There was no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 2,500 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 31,500 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 21st. April, to see these stocks registered at 2,276,667 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were firmer in trade yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a positive sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 1.1027% higher; to see this index registered at 330.7480.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.248 to Sterling, at 1.087 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.334 Brazilian Real.     

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on a positive note, both markets continued on this relatively buoyant rack into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market started to attract selling pressure to dive into negative territory for the day where it would close after a softer late afternoon session, while the London market followed suit in a more sedate manner but to hit a floor and gain momentum late in day to close near to par on a modest positive note. 

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 75% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 90.2% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close does little to indicate direction and one might think the markets are due for little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                             

JUL    1186 + 6                                                                   JUL    105.30 – 2.30

SEP    1208 + 7                                                                    SEP   106.60 – 2.00

NOV   1227 + 6                                                                    DEC   108.40 – 1.85

JAN    1245 + 7                                                                    MAR  110.30 – 1.70 

MAR   1263 + 7                                                                    MAY  111.40 – 1.65 

MAY   1280 + 6                                                  JUL   112.55 – 1.60

JUL     1298 + 7                                                                    SEP    113.70 – 1.50

SEP    1319 + 8                                                  DEC  115.25 – 1.50