Coffee Market Report May 11 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position within the market by 43.12% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 5th May; to register a new net long position of 3,638 Lots which is the equivalent of 1,031,357 bags.  This net long position has most likely been largely decreased, for the second consecutive week, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that since followed.  

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 0.2% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 5th May; to register a short-sold position of 34,044 Lots.  This net short sold position is the equivalent of 5,674,000 bags and has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.  

The London market was closed for the Bank Holiday in the UK on Friday, to leave the New York market trading solo for a shortened day’s trade.  

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday; to register this at 57.85 usc/Lb.  This equates to 51.81% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.    

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 4,270 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 1,807,566 bags, with 90.8% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,640,327 bags and the remaining 9.2% being held in the USA at a total of 167,194.  There was meanwhile a larger in number decrease by 8,950 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 16,565 bags.  

The commodity markets were marginally firmer in trade on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Oil, Cocoa, New York Arabica Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Corn, Soybean and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, the Orange Juice market remained unchanged on the day, while the Natural Gas, Sugar, Wheat and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.8003% higher; to see this index registered at 346.1869.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.241 to Sterling, at 1.084 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.732 Brazilian Real.   

The New York market started the day on Friday trading on a positive note, the market continued on this firm upward track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market, trading solo for the day, continued to trend on a positive sideways track to see the market close on a respectable positive note for the day. 

The London market returns to the field of play today and following a soft close for the end of last week on Thursday and a positive close for the New York market on Friday, and with 63.86% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This positive close for the New York market might assist towards some degree of confidence to possibly set the markets for a hesitant near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set in London on Thursday and New York on Friday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                 

JUL    1186 – 15                                                                    JUL    111.65 + 2.65

SEP    1206 – 16                                                                    SEP   112.70 + 2.60

NOV   1225 – 18                                                                     DEC   114.35 + 2.35

JAN    1245 – 18                                                                     MAR  116.15 + 2.30 

MAR   1263 – 18                                                                     MAY  117.00 + 2.10 

MAY   1283 – 18                                                   JUL   117.85 + 1.90

JUL     1300 – 18                                                                     SEP    118.70 + 1.70

SEP    1321 – 18                                                   DEC  119.85 + 1.45