Coffee Market Report May 13 2020

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of April were 1.5% higher than the same month last year, to total 2.99 million bags.   This they say has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first seven months of the October 2019 to September 2020 Coffee year to be 19.91 million bags. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 53.83 usc/Lb.  This equates to 50.14% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,764 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,801,768 bags, with 90.7% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,634,574 bags and the remaining 9.3% being held in the USA at a total of 167,194.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 13,359 bags.  

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 18,833 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 11th May, to see these stocks registered at 2,192,833 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were softer in trade yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Sugar market ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.1287% lower; to see this index registered at 341.964.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.228 to Sterling, at 1.085 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.886 Brazilian Real.  

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on a negative note with the London market trading close to par and the New York market opening very negative for the day, both markets continued on this respective softer track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market attracted more selling pressure on the back of an already weak Brazil Real to accentuate the losses for the day. The London market maintained its downward momentum, following the New York market, to see the market close on a negative note for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 94.7% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 82.9% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close does little to inspire any confidence and one might think the markets are due little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

JUL    1180 – 18                                                                     JUL    107.35 – 3.40

SEP    1201 – 17                                                                     SEP   108.55 – 3.30

NOV   1218 – 17                                                                      DEC   110.35 – 3.10

JAN    1238 – 17                                                                      MAR  112.15 – 3.00 

MAR   1257 – 15                                                                      MAY  113.15 – 2.90 

MAY   1276 – 14                                                    JUL   114.20 – 2.80

JUL     1293 – 14                                                                      SEP    115.20 – 2.70

SEP    1311 – 17                                                    DEC  116.70 – 2.45