Coffee Market Report May 14 2020

The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of April are down by 2.5% from the previous month, to total 2,763,317 bags. This number proving to be slightly below the 2.83 million bags that had been initially forecast for the month’s coffee exports. 

The report also states that for the first four months of 2020, Vietnam coffee exports are 8.1% lower than the same period last year at a total of 11,380,050 bags, while the report also illustrates that the value of Vietnam coffee exports for the first four months of 2020 are 5.3% higher than the same period last year, at a total of approximately 1.15 billion US dollars. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 53.02 usc/Lb.  This equates to 50.47% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.     

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 11,632 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,790,136 bags, with 90.7% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,632,998 bags and the remaining 9.3% being held in the USA at a total of 166,138.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 13,359 bags.  

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 18,833 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 11th May, to see these stocks registered at 2,192,833 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were softer in trade yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Sugar and Cocoa markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 1.2644% lower; to see this index registered at 337.641.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.219 to Sterling, at 1.081 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.885 Brazilian Real.   

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on a negative note with the London market trading close to par and the New York market opening very negative for the day, both markets continued on this respective softer track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market attracted more selling pressure to accentuate the losses for the day. The London market followed suit and closed on a very soft note for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 94.3% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 95.8% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This very soft close does little to inspire any confidence and one might think the markets are due little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                 

JUL    1147 – 33                                                                     JUL    105.05 – 2.30

SEP    1168 – 33                                                                     SEP   106.35 – 2.20

NOV   1186 – 32                                                                      DEC   108.25 – 2.10

JAN    1207 – 31                                                                      MAR  110.20 – 1.95 

MAR   1227 – 30                                                                      MAY  111.20 – 1.95 

MAY   1246 – 30                                                    JUL   112.25 – 1.95

JUL     1263 – 30                                                                      SEP    113.30 – 1.90

SEP    1281 – 30                                                    DEC  114.75 – 1.95