Coffee Market Report

by | 09 Feb 2021

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net long position within this market by 1.41% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 2nd. February; to register a new net long position of 25,358 lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market raised their net long position within the market by 0.23%, to register a net long position of 72,829 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market raised their net long position within the market by 3.27% to register a new net long position of 22,827 Lots which is the equivalent of 6,471,353 bags. This net long position has most likely been marginally increased, following the period of mixed but overall, firmer sideways trade that has since followed.   

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market increase their net short position within the market by 20.46% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 2nd. February: to register a new net short sold position of 17,613 Lots which is the equivalent of 2,935,500 bags.  This net short sold position has most likely been further increased, following the period of sideways but overall firmer trade that has since followed. 

The March 2021 to March 2021 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday: to register this at 63.55 usc/Lb. This equates to 51.21% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 10,585 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,662,830 bags, with 94.8% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,577,169 bags and the remaining 5.2% being held in the USA at a total 85,661 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number 438 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 106,714 bags. 

It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 1.30% higher; to see this index registered 486.69.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.378 Sterling, at 1.207 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.366 Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest firmer note, both markets quickly gained momentum to see the markets soon hit a ceiling limiting the gains for the for the morning session. As the afternoon progressed the New York market dropped back from the highs of the morning to see the market set on a softer path for the late afternoon session. Both markets recovered to some degree from the earlier in the day losses to see the markets settle on a softer note for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a modest negative note with 71.43% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise modest negative note with 33.33% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close, albeit that the market recovered most of the earlier in the day losses does little to inspire confidence and one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                            

MAR    1335 – 5                                     MAR    124.10 – 0.40

MAY     1356 – 3                                     MAY     126.25 – 0.40

JUL      1371 – 1                                     JUL     128.15 – 0.40

SEP     1386 – 1                                    SEP     130.00 – 0.40

NOV     1402 – 1                                    DEC     132.00 – 0.35

JAN     1417 – 1                                    MAR    133.60 – 0.35

MAR    1434 – 1                                    MAY    134.25 – 0.40

MAY     1449 – 2                                     JUL        134.75 – 0.35