Coffee Market Report

by | 15 Feb 2021

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector cut their net long position by 13.47% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 9th. February: to register a new net long position of 19,752 which is the equivalent of 5,599,604.  This net long position has most likely been decreased, following the period of softer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market cut their net short position within the market by 32.80% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 9th. February: to register a new net short sold position of 11,835 Lots which is the equivalent of 1,972,500 bags.  This net short sold position has most likely been further increased, following the period of sideways but overall softer trade that has since followed. 

The March 2021 to March 2021 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday: to register this at 60.28 usc/Lb. This equates to 49.76% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 26,902 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 1,715,133 bags, with 95% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,629,722 bags and the remaining 5% being held in the USA at a total 85,411 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 11,798 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 86,861 bags.

It was a neutral day overall on the commodity markets on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a modest firm sideways track for the day. The London Robusta Coffee market ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Cocoa and New York Arabica Coffee Markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.55% higher; to see this index registered 488.63.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.390 Sterling, at 1.214 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.370 Real.

The New York and London market started the day on Friday trading on a modest firmer note, both markets quickly gained momentum to see the markets trend firmer for the late afternoon session. As the afternoon progressed the New York and London markets fell back from the highs of the morning session to see the markets set on a softer path, the markets rallied late in the day but only to hit a ceiling limiting the gains for the day and to see the markets drop back from these highs. The New York market settled on a near to par modest soft note, while the London market settled on a near to par modest firmer note.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note with 30.76% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest close to par negative note with 5.26% of the earlier losses of the day intact. The New York market is closed today for the U.S.A. Presidents Day holiday, which is celebrated in not all but many of the states, which shall leave the London market trading solo for the day. One might think that this shall slow trade within the London market for the day, and one might think the market is due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                            

MAR    1342 + 4                                     MAR    121.15 – 0.05

MAY     1367 + 5                                     MAY     123.05  Unch

JUL      1380 + 3                                     JUL     125.00 + 0.05

SEP     1395 + 2                                     SEP     126.80 + 0.05

NOV     1411 + 1                                     DEC     128.90 + 0.05

JAN     1426 + 1                                     MAR    130.60 + 0.05

MAR    1444 + 1                                     MAY    131.40 + 0.05

MAY     1461 + 1                                     JUL        132.05 + 0.15