Coffee Market Report

by | 22 Mar 2021

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector cut their net long position by 4.22% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 16th. March: to register a net long position of 28,224 which is the equivalent of 8,001,379 bags.  This net long position has most likely been decreased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed.   

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market cut their net long position by 8.36% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 16th. March: to register a net long position of 18,693 Lots which is the equivalent of 3,115,500 bags.  This net long position has most likely been decreased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade has since followed.

The May-to-May contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday: to register this at 66.41 usc/Lb. This equates to 51.48% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 285 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 1,840,604 bags, with 94.9% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,746,058 bags and the remaining 5.1% being held in the USA at a total 94,546 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 9,346 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 31,801 bags.

It was a neutral day overall on the commodity markets on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, Corn, Soybean and Gold markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Orange Juice, Wheat and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.386 Sterling, at 1.190 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.489 Real.       

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading on a softer note. Both markets quickly turned to gain momentum in the early afternoon session, to see the New York and London markets hit a ceiling for the day limiting the gains for the remainder of the session. As the afternoon progressed the New York and London markets started to trend on a softer track, this supported by some degree of selling pressure which saw the markets through to the close on a negative note for the day.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 40% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 55.88% of the earlier losses of the day intact. The softer close does little to inspire confidence, albeit that the markets recovered from the earlier in the day lows, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                            

MAY     1380 – 6                                     MAY     129.00 – 0.95

JUL      1404 – 7                                     JUL     131.05 – 0.90

SEP     1424 – 8                                     SEP     132.95 – 0.95

NOV     1440 – 9                                     DEC     135.05 – 0.90

JAN     1455 – 9                                     MAR    136.90 – 0.90

MAR    1470 – 9                                     MAY    137.75 – 0.85

MAY     1488 – 8                                     JUL        138.25 – 0.90

JUL      1504 – 8                                    SEP     138.60 – 0.85