Coffee Market Report

by | 24 Mar 2021

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of February were 89,435 bags or 18.90% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 562,763 bags.   Uganda Robusta exports registered a 28.72% increase in exports when compared to the same month last year, to total 500,685 bags, whereas Arabica exports registered a decrease by 26.40% to a total 62,078 bags exported in February this year. The UCDA likewise report that the cumulative exports for the first five months of the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year are 198,205 bags or 9.48% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 2,289,880 bags.  

The May-to-May contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday: to register this at 65.14 usc/Lb. This equates to 51.05% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain decrease by 5,450 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,835,154 bags, with 94.8% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,740,608 bags and the remaining 5.2% being held in the USA at a total 94,546 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 10,855 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 47,776 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to increase by 68,500 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 22nd. March, to see these stocks registered at 2,471,167 bags, on the day.

It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a negative track for the day, the US Dollar reached its strongest levels in the past two weeks on the back of the hopes of an economic recovery in the near future. The Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.371 Sterling, at 1.184 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.521 Real.       

The New York and London coffee markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest positive note, both markets continued to trade around par for the remainder of the morning session, before coming under some degree of selling pressure to see the markets drop back for the morning. As the afternoon progressed the New York and London markets soon hit a floor limiting, only to bounce back and rally late in the day. This support was short lived as the markets soon dropped back from the highs of the day and to be set on a softer path for the remainder of the day which saw the New York and London markets settle near to the lows of the day.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 91.30% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 94.34% of the earlier losses of the day intact. The softer close does little to inspire confidence and with the markets settling near to the lows of the day, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                            

MAY     1377 – 21                                   MAY     127.60 – 2.50

JUL      1399 – 21                                   JUL     129.65 – 2.45

SEP     1418 – 21                                   SEP     131.60 – 2.40

NOV     1422 – 22                                   DEC     133.75 – 2.35

JAN     1448 – 21                                   MAR    135.55 – 2.35

MAR    1464 – 21                                    MAY    136.35 – 2.30

MAY     1482 – 21                                    JUL        136.80 – 2.35

JUL      1498 – 21                                    SEP     137.10 – 2.30