Coffee Market Report

by | 06 Apr 2021

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector cut their net long position by 43.31% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 30th. March: to register a net long position of 12,236 which is the equivalent of 3,468,852 bags.  This net long position has most likely been further decreased, following the period of softer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market cut their net long position within this market by 46.53% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 30th. March; to register a new net long position of 10,287 lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 5.87%, to register a net long position of 68,593 Lots on the day.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market cut their net long position by 24.39% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 30th. March: to register a net long position of 13,287 Lots which is the equivalent of 2,214,500 bags.  This net long position has most likely been further decreased, following the period of softer trade has since followed. 

The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (ICAFE) have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of March were 4% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 170,501 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the first six months of the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to be 4.2% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 386,828 bags. 

The Brazil government have reported that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of March were 982,900 bags or 32.30% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 4,026,483 bags. The large increase in reported exports for this month when compared to the same month in the previous years can be attributed to the biennially bearing larger production for the 2020 coffee year that continues to flow to consumer markets around the globe, the official breakdown of coffee exports by description for March will soon be released and can be anticipated to illustrate this factor more accurately.

The weather across the Brazil coffee belt has meanwhile, registered a week of good rains across the main coffee growing areas, with weather forecasters foreseeing the possibility of further good rains to come during this week. 

The July-to-July contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday: to register this at 62.82 usc/Lb. This equates to 50.64% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 9,489 bags on the 1st April, 2021., to register these stocks at 1,850,075 bags, with 95.2% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,761,937 bags and the remaining 4.8% being held in the USA at a total 88,138 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 15,465 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 25,421 bags. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,850,075 bags, with 95.2% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,761,937 bags and the remaining 4.8% being held in the USA at a total 88,138 bags.  There was meanwhile a 13,420 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 38,841 bags.

A modest overall percentage of an average year on year 11.50% of arabica coffees that are produced in Brazil constitute washed arabica coffees.  These coffees are tenderable to the New York exchange, and following on from the record arabica crop of July 2020 to June 2021, has seen these washed arabica coffees register increased deliveries to the New York exchange over these months of shipment, to now have surpassed Honduras, to become the main origin held at the exchange with a total of 893,424 bags currently held in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange with 77.21% of the total Brazil coffees being held in Antwerp along with 17.82% being held in Hamburg.

Following the closure of the markets for the long weekend national holiday celebrations in many countries on Friday, the London commodity markets remained closed for the day yesterday, to leave the U.S. markets to trade solo for the day.  The Sugar and New York arabica coffee market near to steady for the day, while the Cocoa, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.391 to Sterling, at 1.181 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.664 Brazilian Real.

The New York market traded solo yesterday and started the day trading close to par on a modest positive note, the New York market continued on this track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the market attracted selling pressure to drop into negative territory for the day, only to bounce off the lows of the day and close on a modest positive note.

The London market ended the day on Thursday on a negative and with 100% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day yesterday on a positive note and with 38.46% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This modest positive close might inspire some degree of confidence as the New York market was able to bounce back off the lows of the day to close on a modest positive note, against the prices set in London on Thursday and in New York yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT.                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

Close 01/04/2021                                        Close 01/04/2021                                                                     

MAY     1325 – 17                                   MAY     121.60 – 1.90                                                   

JUL      1350 – 16                                   JUL     123.55 – 1.85

SEP     1370 – 16                                   SEP     125.40 – 1.90

NOV     1386 – 16                                   DEC     127.80 – 1.85

JAN     1401 – 16                                   MAR    129.90 – 1.80

MAR    1416 – 17                                   MAY    130.90 – 1.85

MAY     1433 – 17                                   JUL        131.55 – 1.90

JUL      1450 – 17                                   SEP      131.95 – 1.95 

NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

Close 05/04/2021

MAY     122.10 + 0.50                                                   

JUL     124.05 + 0.50

SEP     125.95 + 0.55

DEC     128.40 + 0.60

MAR    130.45 + 0.55

MAY    131.55 + 0.65

JUL        132.30 + 0.75

SEP      132.80 + 0.85