Coffee Market Report

by | 07 Apr 2021

The National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCAFE) have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of March were 25.02% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 965,598 bags. The report also states that coffee exports for the first six months of the current October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year are 15.18% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 2,351,598 bags. 

The National Coffee Institute of Honduras despite the more modest performance for the first six months of the present coffee year as well as the devastation and infrastructural damage caused by the back-to-back hurricanes Eta and Iota which swept through Honduras and Nicaragua in November, which has taken a toll, are still confident that the countries coffee exports shall marginally exceed the previous year export volume, at a total of 5.61 million bags. 

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of March were 146,010 bags or 53.61% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 99,292 bags.  This contributes to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first six months of the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to be 419,685 bags or 25.20% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 1,245,550 bags.

The July-to-July contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday: to register this at 67.15 usc/Lb. This equates to 52.17% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,850,075 bags, with 95.2% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,761,937 bags and the remaining 4.8% being held in the USA at a total 88,138 bags.  There was a 5,120 bag increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 43,961 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 18,333 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 5th. April, to see these stocks registered at 2,461,333 bags, on the day. 

It was a firmer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a positive track for the day, buoyed by broad based gains in the leading in influence Oil markets, supported by a softer US Dollar. The Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.382 Sterling, at 1.187 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.590 Real.   

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading close to par on a modest positive note. The markets continued to oscillate around par for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed both the New York and the first trading day for London this week, started to gain a degree of technical buying support to see the markets trend firmer toward the latter half of the day, with continued buoyancy on the New York market, triggering stops along the way.  The markets hit a ceiling late in the day, limiting the gains for the day, to see the London market drop back from the highs of the day and settle on a modest firmer note, while the New York market settled near to the highs of the day on a very firm positive note.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 36.84% of the gains the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise very positive note and with 91.12% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close might inspire confidence with the New York market gaining momentum late in the day and retaining the gains for the day, one might think that the markets are due for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT.                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                                         

MAY     1334 + 9                                      MAY     126.85 + 4.75                                                   

JUL      1357 + 7                                      JUL     128.70 + 4.65

SEP     1375 + 5                                      SEP     130.55 + 4.60

NOV     1391 + 5                                      DEC     132.90 + 4.50

JAN     1406 + 5                                      MAR    134.90 + 4.45

MAR    1422 + 6                                      MAY    135.90 + 4.35

MAY     1439 + 6                                      JUL        136.50 + 4.20

JUL      1456 + 6                                     SEP      136.95 + 4.15