Coffee Market Report

by | 13 Sep 2021

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector raise their net long position by 7.95% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 7th. September:  to register a net long position of 36,511 lots, which is the equivalent of 10,350,707 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased changed following the period of softer trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market raise their net long position by 15.53% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 7th. September: to register a new net long position of 28,459 Lots which is the equivalent of 4,743,167 bags.  This net long position has most likely been decreased changed following the period of softer trade that has since followed. 

The November-to-December contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday to register this at 95.15 usc/Lb. This equates to 50.60% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  This wide arbitrage will likely be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 175 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 2,161,747 bags, with 94.26% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 2,037,588 bags and the remaining 5.74% being held in the USA at a total 124,159 bags.  Of this, a total 1,152,510 bags, or 53.31% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 39.18% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 3,200 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register these at 3,200 bags grading stocks. 

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, as investors await news on the tapering of economic support from the Federal Reserve in the USA. The New York Arabica Coffee, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, the Gold market remained unchanged on the day, while the Sugar, Cocoa, London Robusta Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.382 Sterling, at 1.179 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.245 Brazil Real.  

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading on a modest close to par softer note. The markets continued to oscillate around par for the remainder of the early morning session before attracting some degree of buying support to see the market trend firmer and hit a ceiling for the day. As the afternoon progressed the markets would drop back from the highs of the morning and be seen to trend softer for the remainder of the early afternoon session. The markets rebounded from the lows of the day to recover some of the earlier in the day losses late in the day, to see the New York market settle on a modest firmer note at the close, while the London market settled on a near to unchanged softer note at the close. 

The London market ended the day yesterday on a modest close to par negative note and with 16.67& of the losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day yesterday on a positive note and with 34.29% of the gains of the day intact. This mixed but marginally firmer close does little to indicate direction, with the New York market dropping back from the earlier in the day highs and the London market recovering from the lows of the day, one might think that the markets are due for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:       

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                            NEW YORK USC/LB.                                                                                                                 

NOV     2048 – 2                                                  DEC     188.05 + 0.60

JAN      2038 Unch                                              MAR     190.75 + 0.55

MAR    1993 + 6                                                  MAY     191.80 + 0.60

MAY     1974 + 5                                                   JUL      192.45 + 0.60

JUL      1967 + 2                                                  SEP     192.90 + 0.55

SEP      1965 + 1                                                  DEC     193.55 + 0.55

NOV     1969 + 1                                                  MAR    194.10 + 0.55

JAN     1979 + 1                                                  MAY     194.50 + 0.55