Coffee Market Report

by | 01 Oct 2020

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of September were 86,868 bags or 20.67% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 333,332 bags.  This contributes to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports for the October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 323,208 bags or 11.82% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 3,058,673 bags.

The Ivory Coast as west Africa’s leading robusta coffee producer, have reported that their coffee exports for the month of August were 148,000 bags or 71.71% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 58,367 bags.  This has contributed to their country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first eight months of 2020 to be 295,617 bags or 26.43% lower than the same period last year, at a total of 822,750 bags.

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of August were 30,819 bags or 6.30% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 519,683 bags. This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first eleven months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to have been 776,800 bags or 19.05% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4,854,389 bags.  By comparing quantity of coffee exported by type in August this year compared to the same month of last Coffee Year, Robusta increased in quantity by 10.35% to total 457,897 bags, Arabica exports registered a decrease in quantity of 16.42% to total 61,786 bags.

The November to December contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday; to register this at 51.76 usc/Lb.  This equates to 46.65% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.     

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 539 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 1,099,389 bags, with 93.70% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,029,451 bags and the remaining 6.30% being held in the USA at a total of  69,938 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 6,285 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 7,686 bags.  

It was a firmer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a positive track for the day. The Sugar, Coffee market ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa market ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 1.204% higher; to see this index registered at 411.6326.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.293 Sterling, at 1.175 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.611 Brazilian Real.

The New York market started the day yesterday trading marginally south of par, while the London market started the day yesterday trading on a likewise modest softer note. The New York market attracted a degree of buying support early in the morning session to see the market trend positive, with the London market following suit in a more sedate manner. As the afternoon progressed the New York market trended positive buoyed by the bullish sentiment in the market, the London market attracted buying support to trend very positive for the early afternoon session before slipping back into negative territory for the day. Late in the afternoon session saw the New York market slip back off the highs of the day and close on a positive note, while the London market attracted some late in the day support to see the market settle on a modest positive note for the day.

The London market ended the day with on a modest positive note with 6.25% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 43.75% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This positive close might assist towards some degree of confidence to possibly set the markets for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on yesterday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                       NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1305 + 1                                                                        DEC    110.95 + 1.40 

JAN    1331 + 1                                                                       MAR   112.70 + 1.30 

MAR   1348 + 2                                                                       MAY   114.10 + 1.30

MAY   1365 + 3                                                                        JUL    115.50 + 1.30

JUL     1380 + 2                                                                       SEP     116.65 + 1.30 

SEP    1396 + 2                                                                       DEC    117.70 + 1.20

NOV   1412 + 1                                                                        MAR   118.80 + 1.15

JAN    1430 + 1                                                                        MAY   119.75 + 1.10