Coffee Market Report

by | 05 Oct 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative decrease their net long position by 20.09% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 29th. September: to register a new net long position of 25,645 Lots which is the equivalent of 7,270,244 bags.  This net long position has most likely been decreased, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decrease their net long position by 18.75% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 29th. September; to register a new long position of 13,551 Lots.  This net long position is the equivalent of 2,258,500 bags and has most likely been decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The November to December contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday; to register this at 50.44 usc/Lb.  This equates to 46.30% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.     

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,240 bags on Friday to register these stocks at 1,096,224 bags, with 93.80% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,028,026 bags and the remaining 6.20% being held in the USA at a total of  68,198 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number 1,715 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 14,351 bags.  

It was a soft day overall on the commodity markets on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a soft track for the day. The Coffee, Copper and Wheat markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Orange Juice, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.7010% lower; to see this index registered at 406.7062.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.294 Sterling, at 1.173 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.683 Brazilian Real.

The New York and London markets both started the day on Friday trading on a modest soft note, both markets maintained this softer stance for most of the morning trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets started to attract buying support to see the markets set on a positive track for the early afternoon session. This was short lived as late in the day both markets came under a degree of selling pressure to drop off the highs of the day and see the New York market settle on a positive note, while the London market followed suit in a more sedate manner.

The London market ended the day with on a modest positive note with 13.33% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note with 64.40% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close with the New York market settling on a positive note, might inspire some degree of confidence to possibly set the markets for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                       NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1290 + 2                                                                         DEC    108.95 + 1.90 

JAN    1311 – 4                                                                        MAR   110.95 + 1.75 

MAR   1327 – 5                                                                        MAY   112.35 + 1.70

MAY   1343 – 7                                                                         JUL    113.75 + 1.65

JUL     1358 – 7                                                                        SEP     114.95 + 1.55 

SEP    1374 – 7                                                                        DEC    116.15 + 1.45

NOV   1390 – 7                                                                         MAR   117.45 + 1.50

JAN    1408 – 7                                                                          MAY   118.45 + 1.55