Coffee Market Report

by | 09 Nov 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative cut their net long position by 73.03% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 3rd. November: to register a new net long position of 2,602 Lots which is the equivalent of 737,655 bags.  This net long position has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decrease their net short position by 27.56% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 3rd. November; to register a new net short position of 5,681 Lots which is the equivalent of 946,833 bags.  This net short position has most likely been decreased following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed.

The December 2020 to January 2021 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets widened on Friday: to register this at 45.71 usc/Lb.  This equates to 42.74% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange was seen to increase by 9,995 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 1,170,434 bags, with 93.7% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,096,310 bags and the remaining 6.3% being held in the USA at a total 74,124 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number 8,990 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 58,514 bags.  

It was a marginally softer day overall on the commodity markets on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.2150% lower; to see this index registered 417.6449.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar marginally weaker but steady, trading at 1.319 Sterling, at 1.189 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.365 Real.

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading on a positive note, both markets continued to trend firmer for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed both market reached a ceiling to limit the gains for the day, both the New York and London markets dropped back off the highs of the day to see the markets set on a modest positive track for the remainder of the afternoon session. Both markets settled on a positive note for the day with around half of the days gains intact.

The London market ended the day with on a positive note with 50% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise modest positive note with 48.78% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This positive close might inspire some degree of confidence to possibly set the markets for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                 

JAN   1350 + 11                                                      DEC   106.95 + 1.00

MAR   1363 + 13                                                               MAR  109.45 + 1.00

MAY   1376 + 13                                                                 MAY  111.20 + 1.10

JUL     1392 + 12                                                                JUL    112.90 + 1.15

SEP     1409 + 12                                                                 SEP    114.45 + 1.30

NOV    1427 + 12                                                                 DEC   116.30 + 1.30

JAN     1443 + 12                                                                MAR   117.95 + 1.30

MAR    1460 + 12                                                                  MAY   119.05 + 1.30