Coffee Market Report

by | 11 Nov 2020

The December 2020 to January 2021 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday: to register this at 45.34 usc/Lb.  This equates to 42.26% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange was seen to increase by 6,080 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,185,869 bags, with 93.7% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,111,745 bags and the remaining 6.3% being held in the USA at a total 74,124 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number 2,890 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 64,839 bags.  

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to increase by 100,333 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 9th. November, to see these stocks registered at 2,186,833 bags, on the day. 

It was a firmer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a firm sideways track for the day. The Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar and Cocoa markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 1.2951% higher; to see this index registered 424.3102.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.326 Sterling, at 1.182 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.415 Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest positive note, both markets continued to trend firmer for the remainder of the morning session oscillating around par. As the afternoon progressed the London and New York markets buoyed by some degree of buying support trended positive, with the New York market hitting a ceiling limiting the gains for the early afternoon session before rebounding late in the day, while the London market continued on its firmer path to see the market settle near to the highs of the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 90.48% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 56.25% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close and with both markets gaining momentum late in the day to see the markets settle near to the highs of the day might inspire some degree of confidence to possibly set the markets for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                 

JAN   1366 + 19                                                       DEC   107.30 + 0.45

MAR   1379 + 18                                                                MAR  110.00 + 0.45

MAY   1392 + 18                                                                  MAY  111.85 + 0.50

JUL     1408 + 18                                                                 JUL    113.50 + 0.50

SEP     1425 + 18                                                                  SEP    115.05 + 0.50

NOV    1443 + 18                                                                  DEC   117.00 + 0.50

JAN     1459 + 18                                                                 MAR   118.75 + 0.60

MAR    1476 + 18                                                                   MAY   119.70 + 0.50